Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
نویسندگان
چکیده
Aim Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed future on a tropical mountain. Location Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. Time period From 1960–1990 2061–2080. Taxa Fleshy-fruited avian frugivores. Methods Using simulations based functional traits frugivores fruiting plants, quantified number long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody would require projected mountain by year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 8.5]. We applied this approach 343 species. Results Our revealed differed their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited canopy exhibiting higher ability. also suggested even strong intermediate mitigation emissions (RCP 2.6 4.5), sufficient upslope several LDD 2070, which unlikely for majority Furthermore, changes increased low degree trait matching between birds, suggesting generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient Main conclusion study illustrates how animals inform predictive models range suggests biodiversity ecosystems highly vulnerable warming. The increasing availability data globally will allow parameterization similar many other systems.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Global Ecology and Biogeography
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1466-8238', '1466-822X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13456